Penn State returns to the road to face off against Michigan State in a battle of Big Ten bottom-dwellers, with both teams sitting at 3-6 overall and winless in conference play.
The Nittany Lions will put the Land Grant Trophy on the line when toe meets leather Saturday at 3:30 p.m. in Spartan Stadium, with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance.
Here’s what to know about the Spartans before kickoff.
Head coach:
In his second year at the helm, Jonathan Smith has yet to turn the tide in East Lansing. The Spartans went 5-7 in 2024, but an NCAA ruling this week vacated all wins from 2022-24 due to ineligible players, retroactively dropping Smith’s debut season to 0-7.
Prior to arriving in East Lansing, Smith spent six years as head coach at Oregon State, successfully completing a rebuild which made him a popular name in coaching searches two years ago.
After a 2-10 first year with the Beavers, Smith saw steady improvement resulting in a 10-3 record in 2022 — just the second 10-win season in program history — followed by an 8-3 mark in 2023. His overall record in Corvallis was 34-35.
Smith has strong West Coast ties, with previous coaching stints at Idaho, Montana, Boise State and Washington.
Coordinators:
Smith brought Brian Lindgren with him from Oregon State to remain his offensive coordinator. So far, Lindgren has produced two below-average seasons with Michigan State, but his units consistently ranked among the top of the Pac-12 with the Beavers.
This year, the group has been semi-successful passing the ball but has struggled to pick up yards on the ground. That plays to Penn State’s advantage, as the Nittany Lions have defended the pass better than the run.
When Smith arrived at Michigan State, he poached defensive coordinator Joe Rossi from Big Ten foe Minnesota, where he had been since 2017. Under Rossi, the Golden Gophers’ defense ranked top-10 three times, though he hasn’t seen the same results with the Spartans.
Rossi’s unit ranks worst in the Big Ten in points allowed and struggles against both the run and pass, giving up 38 or more points five times in nine games.
Standout players:
Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, a former three-star recruit in his second season at Michigan State, took over as the starter last week against Minnesota in place of Aidan Chiles, who was benched for performance-related reasons. Milivojevic had an impressive first start, completing 20 of 28 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown, though he was sacked seven times in the loss.
The Spartans rely heavily on speedy wide receiver Nick Marsh, who was a former four-star recruit and Penn State target. The true sophomore has a team-leading 46 receptions for 554 yards and five touchdowns this season.
Additionally, wide receiver Omari Kelly has also proven to be a solid transfer portal pickup, contributing 38 receptions for 529 yards and a score in his first year in green and white.
Junior linebacker Jordan Hall is having a career year with 70 tackles, two sacks and an interception, showing his versatility in run defense, pass rush and in coverage. He has 20 more tackles than any other Spartan and is graded as the top defensive player on the team, per PFF.
Record:
Michigan State sits at 3-6, but like Penn State, enters on a six game skid dating back to the start of conference play.
The Spartans secured nonconference victories over Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State, but have since dropped contests to USC, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota.
They’ve lost every conference game by multiple scores with the exception of a 23-20 overtime loss to the Golden Gophers last Saturday.
Series history:
The Nittany Lions hold a marginal 19-18-1 edge over the Spartans, including winning four of the last five and 18 of 28 since joining the Big Ten in 1993, when the Land Grant Trophy was introduced.
Prediction: Penn State 34, Michigan State 16
Vegas pegs the Nittany Lions as 7.5-point favorites, but the line feels light. Despite the identical records, they’ve played much harder down the stretch.
While the Spartans have been blown out in most games, Penn State has lost five conference games by six points or less, including against elite competition.
The Nittany Lions also showed dramatic improvement in the passing game last Saturday against the Hoosiers, and the team has played with high effort under interim head coach Terry Smith despite the lack of on-field results.
Michigan State’s defense is among the worst in the conference, and Penn State should be able to take advantage with a reworked offensive attack that nearly led to a win against No. 2 Indiana.
The Spartans can move the ball through the air but don’t have much of a running threat, allowing the defense to tee off on Milivojevic and make him uncomfortable, similar to last week’s gameplan with heavy pressure rates. Keeping him from scrambling for first downs will be critical.
With a significant talent edge and a vastly improved offense, Penn State should earn its first power conference win of the season and keep its bowl hopes alive with a decisive win Saturday.
